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Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı

Year 2017, Issue: 625, 53 - 63, 01.03.2017

Raif Cergibozan Caner Demir

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin yurt dışına yaptığı doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının (DYY) zamana bağlı davranışını Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli aracılığıyla incelemektedir. Analiz 1992-2015 dönemini kapsamakta ve ana-ülkedeki dışa açıklık oranıyla yatırım maliyetlerini kontrol eden çeşitli rejim değişim modellerini içermektedir. Analiz sonuçları, her bir kontrol değişkeni ile uygulanan modellerin hemen hemen aynı yüksek ve düşük rejim olasılık örüntülerine işaret ettiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 2001 ulusal ekonomik krizi haricinde, Türkiye’nin yurt dışına yaptığı doğrudan yatırımları, 2000 öncesi ve sonrası olmak üzere iki belirgin ve ayrışık aşamayı göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, üç-yıllık bir kriz sonrası toparlanmanın ardından, 2004 yılından bu yana, Türk yatırımcıların yurt dışında yatırım yapma eğilimini önemli ölçüde artmıştır.

Keywords

Dışarıya yönelik doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar Sermaye hareketliliği Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli

References

  • ALFARO, Laura; Areendam CHANDA; Sebnem KALEMLİÖZCAN, and Selin SAYEK; (2004), “FDI and Economic Growth, The Role of Local Financial Markets”, Journal of International Economics, 64, pp. 113-134.
  • ALVAREZ-PLATA, Patricia and Mechthild SCHROOTEN; (2006), “The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov Switching Model Estimation”, The Developing Economies, XLIV(1), pp. 79-91.
  • BİLGİLİ, Fatih; Nadide Sevil HALICI-TÜLÜCE and İbrahim DOĞAN; (2012), “The Determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach”, Economic Modelling, 29(4), pp. 1161-1169.
  • BORENSZTEIN, E.; DE GREGORIO, J. and J.-W. LEE; (1998), “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?”, Journal of International Economics, 45(1), pp. 115- 135.
  • CHEN, Shyh-Wei ve Chung-Hua, SHEN; (2015), “Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Regime Switching: New Evidence from European Countries”, Economic Modelling, 49(C), pp. 260-269.
  • CHOE, Jong Il.; (2003), “Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth?”, Review of Development Economics, 7(1), pp. 44-57.
  • DEMİR, Caner ve Raif CERGİBOZAN; (2017), “Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Eşbütünleşme ve Markov Rejim Değişim Yaklaşımı”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(1), ss. 89-104.
  • DUNNING, John H.; (1979), “Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests”, Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), pp. 9-31.
  • DUNNING, John H.; (1993), Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy, Addison Wesley publishing Co, Harlow, Essex.
  • FINDLAY, Ronald; (1978), “Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 92, pp. 1-16.
  • FRATZSCHER, Marcel; (2002), “On Currency Crises and Contagion”, European Central Bank Working Paper no. 139. Frankfurt, http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp139.pdf.
  • FUNG, K. C., Alicia GARCIA-HERRERO and Alan SIU; (2009), “A Comparative Empirical Examination of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Four Asian Economies: People’s Republic of China; Japan; Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China”, Asian Development Review, 26(2), pp. 86-101.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle”, Econometrica, 57(2), pp. 357-384.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
  • HO, Tsung Wu; (2000); “Regime-Switching Investment-Saving Correlation and International Capital Mobility”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), pp. 619-622.
  • KAYAM, Saime Suna and Mehtap HİSARCIKLILAR; (2009), “Determinants of Turkish FDI Abroad”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 11.
  • KUEH, Swee Hui Jerome, Chin Hong PUAH, Venus Khim-Sen LIEW; (2010), “Selected Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflow of Singapore”, MPRA Working Paper, 25940, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25940/
  • KYRKILIS, Dimitrios and Pantelis PANTELIDIS; (2003), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Outward Foreign Direct Investment”, International Journal of Social Economics, 30(7), pp. 827-836.
  • LUNN, John; (1980), “Determinants of US direct investment in the EEC: further evidence”, European economic review, 13 (1), pp. 93-101.
  • LUNN, John; (1983), “Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC: Revisited Again”, European Economic Review, 21(3), pp. 391-393.
  • NUNNENKAMP, Peter; Maximiliano Sosa ANDRES; Krishna Chaitanya VADLAMANNATI and Andreas WALDKIRCH; (2012), “What Drives India’s Outward FDI?”, Kiel Working Paper, 1800, https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/ what-drives-india2019s-outward-fdi/KWP_1800.pdf
  • SCAPERLANDA, Anthony and Laurence J. MAUER; (1969); “The Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC”, American Economic Review, 59(4), pp. 558-568.
  • SCAPERLANDA, Anthony and Robert S. BALOUGH; (1983), “Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC: Revisited”, European Economic Review, 21(3), pp. 381-390.
  • TELATAR, Erdinç; Funda TELATAR and Nasip BOLATOğLU; (2007), “A Regime Switching Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from Some European Countries”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 29, pp. 523-533.
  • TÜRKCAN, Burcu and İ. Hakan YETKİNER; (2010), “Endogenous Determination of FDI Growth and Economic Growth: The OECD Case”, International Journal of Public Policy, 5(4), pp. 409-429.

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Flows from Turkey: Regime Switching Model Approach

Year 2017, Issue: 625, 53 - 63, 01.03.2017

Raif Cergibozan Caner Demir

Abstract

This study investigates the time-varying behavior of Turkish outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows by employing the Markov Regime Switching Model. The analysis covers the 1992-2015 period and contains several regime switching models controlling openness rate and investment costs of the home country. The results reveal that estimations with each control variable indicate almost same high and low regime probability patterns. Except the 2001 national economic crisis, the outward FDI flows of Turkey demonstrate two distinguished and separated stages which are the pre- and post-2000 periods. According to the findings, after a three-year post crisis recovery stage, the propensity for investing in abroad of Turkish investors has noticeable increased since 2004.

Keywords

Outward foreign direct investment Capital mobility Markov regime switching model

References

  • ALFARO, Laura; Areendam CHANDA; Sebnem KALEMLİÖZCAN, and Selin SAYEK; (2004), “FDI and Economic Growth, The Role of Local Financial Markets”, Journal of International Economics, 64, pp. 113-134.
  • ALVAREZ-PLATA, Patricia and Mechthild SCHROOTEN; (2006), “The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov Switching Model Estimation”, The Developing Economies, XLIV(1), pp. 79-91.
  • BİLGİLİ, Fatih; Nadide Sevil HALICI-TÜLÜCE and İbrahim DOĞAN; (2012), “The Determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach”, Economic Modelling, 29(4), pp. 1161-1169.
  • BORENSZTEIN, E.; DE GREGORIO, J. and J.-W. LEE; (1998), “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?”, Journal of International Economics, 45(1), pp. 115- 135.
  • CHEN, Shyh-Wei ve Chung-Hua, SHEN; (2015), “Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle with Regime Switching: New Evidence from European Countries”, Economic Modelling, 49(C), pp. 260-269.
  • CHOE, Jong Il.; (2003), “Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth?”, Review of Development Economics, 7(1), pp. 44-57.
  • DEMİR, Caner ve Raif CERGİBOZAN; (2017), “Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Eşbütünleşme ve Markov Rejim Değişim Yaklaşımı”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(1), ss. 89-104.
  • DUNNING, John H.; (1979), “Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests”, Journal of International Business Studies, 11(1), pp. 9-31.
  • DUNNING, John H.; (1993), Multinational Enterprises and the Global Economy, Addison Wesley publishing Co, Harlow, Essex.
  • FINDLAY, Ronald; (1978), “Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 92, pp. 1-16.
  • FRATZSCHER, Marcel; (2002), “On Currency Crises and Contagion”, European Central Bank Working Paper no. 139. Frankfurt, http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp139.pdf.
  • FUNG, K. C., Alicia GARCIA-HERRERO and Alan SIU; (2009), “A Comparative Empirical Examination of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Four Asian Economies: People’s Republic of China; Japan; Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China”, Asian Development Review, 26(2), pp. 86-101.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle”, Econometrica, 57(2), pp. 357-384.
  • HAMILTON, James D.; (1994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
  • HO, Tsung Wu; (2000); “Regime-Switching Investment-Saving Correlation and International Capital Mobility”, Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), pp. 619-622.
  • KAYAM, Saime Suna and Mehtap HİSARCIKLILAR; (2009), “Determinants of Turkish FDI Abroad”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 11.
  • KUEH, Swee Hui Jerome, Chin Hong PUAH, Venus Khim-Sen LIEW; (2010), “Selected Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflow of Singapore”, MPRA Working Paper, 25940, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/25940/
  • KYRKILIS, Dimitrios and Pantelis PANTELIDIS; (2003), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Outward Foreign Direct Investment”, International Journal of Social Economics, 30(7), pp. 827-836.
  • LUNN, John; (1980), “Determinants of US direct investment in the EEC: further evidence”, European economic review, 13 (1), pp. 93-101.
  • LUNN, John; (1983), “Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC: Revisited Again”, European Economic Review, 21(3), pp. 391-393.
  • NUNNENKAMP, Peter; Maximiliano Sosa ANDRES; Krishna Chaitanya VADLAMANNATI and Andreas WALDKIRCH; (2012), “What Drives India’s Outward FDI?”, Kiel Working Paper, 1800, https://www.ifw-members.ifw-kiel.de/publications/ what-drives-india2019s-outward-fdi/KWP_1800.pdf
  • SCAPERLANDA, Anthony and Laurence J. MAUER; (1969); “The Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC”, American Economic Review, 59(4), pp. 558-568.
  • SCAPERLANDA, Anthony and Robert S. BALOUGH; (1983), “Determinants of US Direct Investment in the EEC: Revisited”, European Economic Review, 21(3), pp. 381-390.
  • TELATAR, Erdinç; Funda TELATAR and Nasip BOLATOğLU; (2007), “A Regime Switching Approach to the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from Some European Countries”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 29, pp. 523-533.
  • TÜRKCAN, Burcu and İ. Hakan YETKİNER; (2010), “Endogenous Determination of FDI Growth and Economic Growth: The OECD Case”, International Journal of Public Policy, 5(4), pp. 409-429.
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Raif Cergibozan

Caner Demir

Publication Date March 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Issue: 625

Cite

APA Cergibozan, R., & Demir, C. (2017). Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(625), 53-63.
AMA Cergibozan R, Demir C. Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı. FPEYD. March 2017;(625):53-63.
Chicago Cergibozan, Raif, and Caner Demir. “Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 625 (March 2017): 53-63.
EndNote Cergibozan R, Demir C (March 1, 2017) Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 625 53–63.
IEEE R. Cergibozan and C. Demir, “Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı”, FPEYD, no. 625, pp. 53–63, March 2017.
ISNAD Cergibozan, Raif - Demir, Caner. “Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı”. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 625 (March 2017), 53-63.
JAMA Cergibozan R, Demir C. Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı. FPEYD. 2017;:53–63.
MLA Cergibozan, Raif and Caner Demir. “Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 625, 2017, pp. 53-63.
Vancouver Cergibozan R, Demir C. Türkiye’den Yurt Dışına YapılanDoğrudan Yatırımlar: Rejim DeğişimModeli Yaklaşımı. FPEYD. 2017(625):53-6.