Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

PANDEMİ SÜRECİNDE MEYDANA GELEN MAKROEKONOMİK KAYIPLARIN ANALİZİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 125 - 150, 28.03.2023

Aziz Kutlar Ahmet Gülmez Pınar Koç Abidin Öncel

Abstract

2019:q1-2020:q3 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmanın amacı, OECD ülkelerinde pandemi sürecinde meydana gelen makroekonomik kayıpların ve ülkelerin makroekonomik kayıplar bakımından benzerlik gösterip göstermediklerinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada kümeleme analizi ve çok boyutlu ölçekleme analizleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, pandemi öncesinde çoğu OECD ülkesi ekonomik etki açısından birbirlerine benzer özellikler gösterirken, pandemi sürecinde Türkiye, İzlanda, İrlanda, Yeni Zelanda ve Meksika gibi ülkeler ekonomik etki açısından diğer ülkelerden önemli ölçüde farklılıklar göstermektedirler. Ayrıca pandeminin en çok hissedildiği 2020'nin ikinci çeyreğinde, COVID-19 nedeniyle en fazla ekonomik kaybın İspanya, İngiltere, Meksika ve Kolombiya tarafından yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre en çok daralma görülen ekonomik değişken dış ticaret hacmi değişkenidir.

Keywords

Covid 19 Makro Ekonomik Kayıplar Kümeleme Analizi Çok Boyutlu Ölçekleme Analizi

References

  • Anderberg, M. R. (1973), Cluster Analysis for Applications. New York: Academic Press.
  • Ashraf, B.N. (2020), “Economic Impact of Government Interventions During The COVID-19 Pandemic:
  • International Evidence From Financial Markets”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100371.
  • España B. (2020), "Reference Macroeconomic Scenarios For The Spanish Economy After Covid-19", Economic Bulletin, 2, 1-32.
  • Blei, D. M.; Lafferty, J. (2009), “Topic Models”, BleiLafferty2009.pdf (columbia.edu)(Erişim Tarihi: 08.06.2021).
  • Boissay, F. ve Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2020), “Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19: An Early Review”, BIS
  • Bulletins, 7, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Borg, I. ve Groenen, P.J.F. (2005), Modern Multidimensional Scaling: Theory and Applications. 2nd ed., New York: Springer.
  • Coibon O., Gorodnichenko Y. ve Weber M. (2020), “The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No.27141
  • Cox, T. F. ve Cox, M.A.A. (2001), Multidimensional Scaling, 2nd ed., Boca Raton FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
  • De Vito, A. Ve Gomez, J. (2020), “Estimating the COVID-19 Cash Crunch: Global Evidence and Policy”, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 39, 106741.
  • Deb, P., Furceri, D., Ostry, J.D. ve Tawk, N. (2020), “The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures”, IMF Working Paper, WP/20/158.
  • Djiofack, C. Z., Dudu, H. ve Zeufack, A. G. (2020), “Assessing COVID-19’s Economic Impact İn Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights From A CGE Model”, S. Djankov & U. Panizza(der.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies içinde, UK: CEPR Press, 53-68.
  • Djurovic, G., Djurovic, V. ve Bojaj, M.M. (2020), “The Macroeconomic Effects Of COVID 19 in Montenegro: A Bayesian VARX Approach”. Financial Innovation, C.6, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-020-00207-z.
  • Everitt, B. S., Landau, S., Leese, M. Ve Stahl, D. (2011), Cluster Analysis, 5th ed. UK: Wiley.
  • Farayibi, A.O. ve Asongu, S. A. (2020), “The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria”, MPRA, Paper No. 107098.
  • Fernandes, N. (2020), “Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy” IESE Business School Working Paper, No. WP-1240-E.
  • Gordon, A. D. (1999), Classification, 2nd ed., Boca Raton FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
  • Gökçen, C. A. (2021), “Assessing the Effects of Covid-19 Containment Measures on Manufacturing and Services Industries”, TCMB Working Paper, No: 21/18.
  • Hair, J., Anderson, R., Tatham, R. ve Black, W. (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th Edition, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Jain, A. K. ve Dubes, R.C. (1988), Algorithms for Clustering Data, Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • Kaufman, L. ve P. J. Rousseeuw, P. J. (1990), Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis, New York: Wiley.
  • König, M. ve Winkler, A. (2020), “COVID-19 and Economic Growth: Does Good Government Performance Pay Off?”, Intereconomics, 55, 224–231.
  • Kruskal, J. B. (1964a), “Multidimensional Scaling by Optimizing Goodness of Fit to A Nonmetric Hypothesis”, Psychometrika, 29, 1–27.
  • Kruskal, J.B. (1964b), “Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling: A Numerical Method”, Psychometrika, 29, 115–129.
  • Kruskal, J. B. ve Wish, M. (1978), Multidimensional Scaling, Newbury Park CA: SAGE.
  • Lance, G. N. ve Williams, W.T. (1967), “A General Theory of Classificatory Sorting Strategies: 1. Hierarchical Systems”, Computer Journal, 9, 373–380.
  • Lingoes, J. C. (1971), “Some Boundary Conditions for A Monotone Analysis of Symmetric Matrices”, Psychometrika, 36, 195–203.
  • Luga, L.C. ve Mihalciuc, A. (2020), “Major Crises of the XXIst Century and Impact on Economic Growth”, Sustainability, 12, 1-20.
  • McKibbin, W. ve Fernando, R. (2021), “The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios”, Asian Economic Papers, 20, 1-30.
  • Malliet, P., Reynès, F., Landa, G., Hamdi-Cherif, M. ve Saussay, A. (2020), “Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France”, Environmental and Resource Economics, 76, 867–883.
  • Mardia, K.V. (1978), “Some Properties of Classical Multidimensional Scaling”, Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 7, 1233–1241.
  • Mardia, K. V., Kent, J.T.; Bibby, J.M. (1979)., Multivariate Analysis. London: Academic Press.
  • McKibbin, W. ve Fernando, R. (2020), “The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios”, CAWA Working Paper, No:19/2020.
  • Milani, F. (2021), “COVID-19 Outbreak, Social Response, and Early Economic Effects: A Global VAR Analysis of Cross-Country Interdependencies”, Journal of Population Economics, 34, 223–252.
  • Mohapatra, S. (2021), “Gender Differentiated Economic Responses to Crises In Developing Countries: Insights for COVID-19 Recovery Policies”, Review of Economics of the Household, 19, 291-306.
  • Mooney, H. ve Zegarra, M. A. (2020), “The Pandemic’s Unprecedented Shock to Tourism in Latin America and the Caribbean”, S. Djankov ve U. Panizza (der.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies İçinde, UK: CEPR Press, 112-126.
  • Morissette, L. ve Chartier, S. (2013), “The K-Means Clustering Technique: General Considerations and Implementation in Mathematica”, Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 9(1), 15-24.
  • OECD (2020), “Quarterly National Accounts”, https://stats.oecd.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2021).
  • Oravský, R., Tóth, P. ve Bánociová A. (2020), “The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008”, Journal of Risk Financial Management, 13(8), 179.
  • Rencher, A. C. ve Christensen, W.F. (2012), Methods of Multivariate Analysis, 3rd ed. Hoboken NJ: Wiley. Sawada, Y. ve Sumulong, L. R. (2021), Macroeconomic Impact of Covıd-19 in Developing Asia, ADBI Working Paper Series, No.1251.
  • Sokal, R.R. ve Sneath, P.H.A. (1963), Principles of Numerical Taxonomy, New York: W.H. Freeman & Co. Torgerson, W. S. (1952), “Multidimensional Scaling: I. Theory and Method”, Psychometrika, 17, 401–419.
  • Young, F. W. ve Hamer, R.M. (1987), Multidimensional Scaling: History, Theory, and Applications, Hillsdale NJ: Erlbaum Associates.
  • Young, G. A. ve Householder, S. (1938), “Discussion of A Set of Points in terms of Their Mutual Distances”, Psychometrika, 3, 19–22.

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 125 - 150, 28.03.2023

Aziz Kutlar Ahmet Gülmez Pınar Koç Abidin Öncel

Abstract

References

  • Anderberg, M. R. (1973), Cluster Analysis for Applications. New York: Academic Press.
  • Ashraf, B.N. (2020), “Economic Impact of Government Interventions During The COVID-19 Pandemic:
  • International Evidence From Financial Markets”, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100371.
  • España B. (2020), "Reference Macroeconomic Scenarios For The Spanish Economy After Covid-19", Economic Bulletin, 2, 1-32.
  • Blei, D. M.; Lafferty, J. (2009), “Topic Models”, BleiLafferty2009.pdf (columbia.edu)(Erişim Tarihi: 08.06.2021).
  • Boissay, F. ve Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2020), “Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19: An Early Review”, BIS
  • Bulletins, 7, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Borg, I. ve Groenen, P.J.F. (2005), Modern Multidimensional Scaling: Theory and Applications. 2nd ed., New York: Springer.
  • Coibon O., Gorodnichenko Y. ve Weber M. (2020), “The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No.27141
  • Cox, T. F. ve Cox, M.A.A. (2001), Multidimensional Scaling, 2nd ed., Boca Raton FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
  • De Vito, A. Ve Gomez, J. (2020), “Estimating the COVID-19 Cash Crunch: Global Evidence and Policy”, Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 39, 106741.
  • Deb, P., Furceri, D., Ostry, J.D. ve Tawk, N. (2020), “The Economic Effects of COVID-19 Containment Measures”, IMF Working Paper, WP/20/158.
  • Djiofack, C. Z., Dudu, H. ve Zeufack, A. G. (2020), “Assessing COVID-19’s Economic Impact İn Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights From A CGE Model”, S. Djankov & U. Panizza(der.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies içinde, UK: CEPR Press, 53-68.
  • Djurovic, G., Djurovic, V. ve Bojaj, M.M. (2020), “The Macroeconomic Effects Of COVID 19 in Montenegro: A Bayesian VARX Approach”. Financial Innovation, C.6, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-020-00207-z.
  • Everitt, B. S., Landau, S., Leese, M. Ve Stahl, D. (2011), Cluster Analysis, 5th ed. UK: Wiley.
  • Farayibi, A.O. ve Asongu, S. A. (2020), “The Economic Consequences of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Nigeria”, MPRA, Paper No. 107098.
  • Fernandes, N. (2020), “Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy” IESE Business School Working Paper, No. WP-1240-E.
  • Gordon, A. D. (1999), Classification, 2nd ed., Boca Raton FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
  • Gökçen, C. A. (2021), “Assessing the Effects of Covid-19 Containment Measures on Manufacturing and Services Industries”, TCMB Working Paper, No: 21/18.
  • Hair, J., Anderson, R., Tatham, R. ve Black, W. (1998), Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th Edition, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Jain, A. K. ve Dubes, R.C. (1988), Algorithms for Clustering Data, Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • Kaufman, L. ve P. J. Rousseeuw, P. J. (1990), Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis, New York: Wiley.
  • König, M. ve Winkler, A. (2020), “COVID-19 and Economic Growth: Does Good Government Performance Pay Off?”, Intereconomics, 55, 224–231.
  • Kruskal, J. B. (1964a), “Multidimensional Scaling by Optimizing Goodness of Fit to A Nonmetric Hypothesis”, Psychometrika, 29, 1–27.
  • Kruskal, J.B. (1964b), “Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling: A Numerical Method”, Psychometrika, 29, 115–129.
  • Kruskal, J. B. ve Wish, M. (1978), Multidimensional Scaling, Newbury Park CA: SAGE.
  • Lance, G. N. ve Williams, W.T. (1967), “A General Theory of Classificatory Sorting Strategies: 1. Hierarchical Systems”, Computer Journal, 9, 373–380.
  • Lingoes, J. C. (1971), “Some Boundary Conditions for A Monotone Analysis of Symmetric Matrices”, Psychometrika, 36, 195–203.
  • Luga, L.C. ve Mihalciuc, A. (2020), “Major Crises of the XXIst Century and Impact on Economic Growth”, Sustainability, 12, 1-20.
  • McKibbin, W. ve Fernando, R. (2021), “The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios”, Asian Economic Papers, 20, 1-30.
  • Malliet, P., Reynès, F., Landa, G., Hamdi-Cherif, M. ve Saussay, A. (2020), “Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France”, Environmental and Resource Economics, 76, 867–883.
  • Mardia, K.V. (1978), “Some Properties of Classical Multidimensional Scaling”, Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 7, 1233–1241.
  • Mardia, K. V., Kent, J.T.; Bibby, J.M. (1979)., Multivariate Analysis. London: Academic Press.
  • McKibbin, W. ve Fernando, R. (2020), “The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios”, CAWA Working Paper, No:19/2020.
  • Milani, F. (2021), “COVID-19 Outbreak, Social Response, and Early Economic Effects: A Global VAR Analysis of Cross-Country Interdependencies”, Journal of Population Economics, 34, 223–252.
  • Mohapatra, S. (2021), “Gender Differentiated Economic Responses to Crises In Developing Countries: Insights for COVID-19 Recovery Policies”, Review of Economics of the Household, 19, 291-306.
  • Mooney, H. ve Zegarra, M. A. (2020), “The Pandemic’s Unprecedented Shock to Tourism in Latin America and the Caribbean”, S. Djankov ve U. Panizza (der.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies İçinde, UK: CEPR Press, 112-126.
  • Morissette, L. ve Chartier, S. (2013), “The K-Means Clustering Technique: General Considerations and Implementation in Mathematica”, Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 9(1), 15-24.
  • OECD (2020), “Quarterly National Accounts”, https://stats.oecd.org/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.06.2021).
  • Oravský, R., Tóth, P. ve Bánociová A. (2020), “The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008”, Journal of Risk Financial Management, 13(8), 179.
  • Rencher, A. C. ve Christensen, W.F. (2012), Methods of Multivariate Analysis, 3rd ed. Hoboken NJ: Wiley. Sawada, Y. ve Sumulong, L. R. (2021), Macroeconomic Impact of Covıd-19 in Developing Asia, ADBI Working Paper Series, No.1251.
  • Sokal, R.R. ve Sneath, P.H.A. (1963), Principles of Numerical Taxonomy, New York: W.H. Freeman & Co. Torgerson, W. S. (1952), “Multidimensional Scaling: I. Theory and Method”, Psychometrika, 17, 401–419.
  • Young, F. W. ve Hamer, R.M. (1987), Multidimensional Scaling: History, Theory, and Applications, Hillsdale NJ: Erlbaum Associates.
  • Young, G. A. ve Householder, S. (1938), “Discussion of A Set of Points in terms of Their Mutual Distances”, Psychometrika, 3, 19–22.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Aziz Kutlar 0000-0001-9080-3672

Ahmet Gülmez 0000-0003-2474-9385

Pınar Koç 0000-0002-7843-1228

Abidin Öncel 0000-0002-1166-0288

Publication Date March 28, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kutlar, A., Gülmez, A., Koç, P., Öncel, A. (2023). PANDEMİ SÜRECİNDE MEYDANA GELEN MAKROEKONOMİK KAYIPLARIN ANALİZİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 12(1), 125-150.

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.