Research Article
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Okun Yasası Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerinde Nasıl İşliyor? Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 273 - 288, 04.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1338162

Abstract

Günümüzde birçok ülkede olduğu gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde de ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik konusu incelenmesi gereken önemli makroekonomik sorunlardan biridir. Bu çalışma, Okun Yasası kapsamında Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri için büyüme ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkinin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada 1991-2019 dönemine ait işsizlik oranı ve büyüme oranı verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada uzun ve kısa dönemli sonuçların elde edilmesine ve her ülke için ayrı bulguların elde edilmesine olanak sağlayan Panel ARDL yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; Kırılgan Beşli ülke grubu için uzun dönem sonuçlarında büyüme ile işsizlik oranı arasında negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunurken, kısa dönem sonuçlarında pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Böylece çalışmanın genel bulguları değerlendirildiğinde Okun Yasası'nın varsayımlarının geçerli olduğu görüldü

References

  • Arshad, Z. (2007). The Validity of Okun’s Law in the Swedish Economy. Stockholm: Stockholm University.
  • Artekin, A. and Soydal, H., (2017). Monetary Policies Implemented in 2001-2015 Impacts on The “Fragile Five” Countries. The Journal of Social Economic Research. 17(33), 175-187, Doi: https://doi.org/10.30976/susead.327654
  • Bartosik, K. (2020). Temporary Contracts And Okun’s Law in Poland. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. 15(4), 735–760, Doi: https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.032
  • Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 239-53. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Cinel, E. A. (2014). Determınants of the Economıc Growth in Turkey (1980-2011). Ordu University Social Sciences Institute Journal of Social Sciences Research. 4 (8), 5-26. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/odusobiad/issue/ 27572/ 290136 (Erişim: 15.03.2022)
  • Cutanda, A. (2023). Stability and Asymmetry in Okun’s Law: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data. Panoeconomicus. 70(2) Doi:10.2298/PAN191203012C.
  • Çadırcı, B. D. and Güner, B. (2020). The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Sectoral Electrıcal Consumptıon in Turkey on City Basis: Panel Ardl Bound Test Approach. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. (31), 41-60. Doi: https://doi.org/10.20875/ makusobed.596894 (Erişim: 15.03.2022)
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. Fourth Edition, New York: The McGraw-Hill.
  • Demirgil, H. (2010). An Empirical Investigation of The Efficacy of Okun’s Law on Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Business Faculty. 2 (2), 139-151. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/uaifd/issue/21590/231829 (Erişim:25.02.2022)
  • Doğru, B. (2013). The Link Between Unemployment Rate and Real Output İn Eurozone: A Panel Error Correction Approach. 9th International Strategic Management Conference. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. 99 (2013), 94-103.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1998). Macroeconomics. Istanbul: McGraw Hill-Akademi,
  • Durech, R., Minea, A., Mustea, L. and Slusna, L. (2014). Regional Evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia. Economic Modelling. 42 (October), 57–65. Doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.
  • Ekşi, O. (2016). Growth-Unemployment Relationship in Turkey for the 2005-2015 Period and the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks. Financial, Political and Economic Comments. 53 (613), 9-19, https://dergipark.org.tr /tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48034/607474 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Elsayed, M.H. (2020). A Proposed Model for Okun Law in The Short-Run and Long-Run the Case of Egypt (1982-2018). International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research. 5 (3), 673-686
  • Freeman, D. G. (2000). Regional Tests of Okun's Law. Int’l. International Advances in Economic Research. 6 (3), 557-570. Doi: 10.1007/BF02294972
  • Güran, N. (1999). Macro-Economic Analysis. Second Edition, Izmir: Anadolu Printing,.
  • Hsiao, C. (1985). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge Üniversity Press.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., (2015). The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Fragile Five Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. The International Journal of Economic and Social Research. 11 (1), 131-144. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esad/issue/38955/456056
  • Izyumov, A. and Vahaly, J. (2002). The Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun’s Law Apply? Economics of Planning. 35 (4), 317-331. Doi: 10.1023/A:1024441219635
  • Karadaş, H.A. (2020). Effect of Labour Force Education Level on Growth: An Analysis on Fragile Five Countries. In Contemporary Approaches in the Field of Economy, Finance and Management (pp.43-58). Erfmeconomıc Research and Financial Markets Congress with Internatıonal Partıcıpatıon. 15-17 October.
  • Kavese, K. and Phiri, A. (2020). A Provincial Perspective Of Nonlinear Okun's Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa. Studia Universitatis Economics Series “Vasile Goldis” Western University of Arad. 30(3), 59 –76.
  • Küçükkaya, H., Özçağ, M. and Bozdağlıoğlu, Y. (2019). Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Relationship Between Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Transition Economies. Special Issue on Applied Economics and Finance. 14 (Special Issue), 62-68. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jyasar/issue/44178/521494
  • Koçbulut, Ö. and Altıntaş, H. (2016). Twin Deficits and The Feldstein-Horiokahypothesis: The Analysis of Panel Cointegration With Structural Break Under the Cross-Section Dependence on OECD Countries. Erciyes University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (48),145-174.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/erciyesiibd/issue/28008/ 297415 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 61 (Special Issue), 631-652. Doi: 10.1111/1468-0084.0610S1631
  • Mıhçı, S. and Atılgan, E. (2010). Unemployment and Growth: Okun Coefficients for Turkish Economy. Economics, Business and Finance. 25 (296), 33-54. Doi: 10.3848/iif.2010.296.2803
  • Narayan, P.K. and Smyth, R. (2006). What Determines Migration Flows from Lowincome to High-Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation of Fiji-US Migration 1972–2001. Contemporary Economic Policy. 24 (2), 332– 342. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/cep/byj019
  • Naskah, I. (2019). Hukum OKUN: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia. Journal Ekonomi Pembangunan. 8(1), 37-44. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v8i1.32
  • Nkoro, E. and Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application And İnterpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods. 5(4), 63-91.
  • Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. In American Statistical Association. Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section , 98-103.
  • Oruç, E. (2019). Testing Validity of Okun’s Law for Five Fragile Economies. A New Perspective in Social Sciences. Frontpage Publications. (e-Book)
  • Owyang, M. and Sekhposyan, T. (2012). Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle was the Great Recession all that Different. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 94(5), 399-418. Doi: 10.20955/r.94.399-418
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics., 16 (Special Issue), 289-326. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Test for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper Series. Discussion Paper No. 1240, 1-39. Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.572504
  • Purnomo, D., Kusumastuti, N., Anas, M., Aisyah, S. and Shaari, M.S. (2020). Evaluating the Economy Growth by Supply Chain Strategies and Testing the Validity of Okun’s Laws in Indonesia. International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 9(1), 826-831
  • Sezen, S. and Öztürk, S. (2018). Analysis of The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey. Mustafa Kemal University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 15(41), 1-14. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/mkusbed/issue/36823/388299 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Schnabel, G. (2002). Output Trends and Okun’s Law. BIS Working Papers. No.111, 1-34. Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.846324
  • Sögner, L. and Stiassny, A. (2002). An Analysis on The Structural Stability of Okun's Law-A Cross-Country Study. Applied Economics. 34 (14), 1775-1787. Doi: 10.1080/00036840210124180
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2003). Advanced Panel Data Analysis. Istanbul: Beta Publishing and Distribution Inc.
  • Uslu, H. (2020). Jobless Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey in the Framework of Okun Law. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. 7 (1), 101-126. Doi: 10.17541/optimum.578251
  • Vogelvang, B. (2005). Econometrics Theory and Applications with EViews. Prentice Hall.
  • Yılmaz, Ö.G. (2005). The Causal Relationship Between Growth and Unemployment Rates in The Turkish Economy. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal. (2), 63-76. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuekois/issue/8983/112053
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö., Daştan, M. and Karabulut, K. (2018). Econometrıc Analysıs of The Relatıonshıp Between Economıc Growth And Unemployment in The Context of The Okun Law: Evıdence From Turkey Economıcs (2000: Q1-2017: Q4). International Journal of Economics Politics Humanities and Social Sciences. 1 (1), 8-2 Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3311098

How Okun's Law Works in Fragile Five Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Year 2023, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 273 - 288, 04.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1338162

Abstract

Today, as in many countries, Economic growth and unemployment are important macroeconomic issues in developing countries that should be examined. This study aims to test the validity of the negative effect of unemployment on growth for the Fragile Five countries under the Okun Law. For this purpose, unemployment rate and growth rate data for the period 1991-2019 were used in the study. Panel ARDL analysis method was used in the study, which allows long and short-term results to be obtained and separate findings for each country. According to the findings obtained; For the Fragile Five country group, there was a negative and statistically significant relationship between growth and unemployment rate in the long-term results, while a positive significant relationship was found in the short-term results. Thus, when the general findings of the study were evaluated, it was seen that the assumptions of the Okun Law were valid

References

  • Arshad, Z. (2007). The Validity of Okun’s Law in the Swedish Economy. Stockholm: Stockholm University.
  • Artekin, A. and Soydal, H., (2017). Monetary Policies Implemented in 2001-2015 Impacts on The “Fragile Five” Countries. The Journal of Social Economic Research. 17(33), 175-187, Doi: https://doi.org/10.30976/susead.327654
  • Bartosik, K. (2020). Temporary Contracts And Okun’s Law in Poland. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy. 15(4), 735–760, Doi: https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.032
  • Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 239-53. Doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Cinel, E. A. (2014). Determınants of the Economıc Growth in Turkey (1980-2011). Ordu University Social Sciences Institute Journal of Social Sciences Research. 4 (8), 5-26. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/odusobiad/issue/ 27572/ 290136 (Erişim: 15.03.2022)
  • Cutanda, A. (2023). Stability and Asymmetry in Okun’s Law: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data. Panoeconomicus. 70(2) Doi:10.2298/PAN191203012C.
  • Çadırcı, B. D. and Güner, B. (2020). The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Sectoral Electrıcal Consumptıon in Turkey on City Basis: Panel Ardl Bound Test Approach. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. (31), 41-60. Doi: https://doi.org/10.20875/ makusobed.596894 (Erişim: 15.03.2022)
  • Gujarati, D.N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. Fourth Edition, New York: The McGraw-Hill.
  • Demirgil, H. (2010). An Empirical Investigation of The Efficacy of Okun’s Law on Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Business Faculty. 2 (2), 139-151. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/uaifd/issue/21590/231829 (Erişim:25.02.2022)
  • Doğru, B. (2013). The Link Between Unemployment Rate and Real Output İn Eurozone: A Panel Error Correction Approach. 9th International Strategic Management Conference. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences. 99 (2013), 94-103.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Fischer, S. (1998). Macroeconomics. Istanbul: McGraw Hill-Akademi,
  • Durech, R., Minea, A., Mustea, L. and Slusna, L. (2014). Regional Evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia. Economic Modelling. 42 (October), 57–65. Doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.
  • Ekşi, O. (2016). Growth-Unemployment Relationship in Turkey for the 2005-2015 Period and the Role of Supply and Demand Shocks. Financial, Political and Economic Comments. 53 (613), 9-19, https://dergipark.org.tr /tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48034/607474 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Elsayed, M.H. (2020). A Proposed Model for Okun Law in The Short-Run and Long-Run the Case of Egypt (1982-2018). International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research. 5 (3), 673-686
  • Freeman, D. G. (2000). Regional Tests of Okun's Law. Int’l. International Advances in Economic Research. 6 (3), 557-570. Doi: 10.1007/BF02294972
  • Güran, N. (1999). Macro-Economic Analysis. Second Edition, Izmir: Anadolu Printing,.
  • Hsiao, C. (1985). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge Üniversity Press.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., (2015). The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Fragile Five Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. The International Journal of Economic and Social Research. 11 (1), 131-144. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esad/issue/38955/456056
  • Izyumov, A. and Vahaly, J. (2002). The Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun’s Law Apply? Economics of Planning. 35 (4), 317-331. Doi: 10.1023/A:1024441219635
  • Karadaş, H.A. (2020). Effect of Labour Force Education Level on Growth: An Analysis on Fragile Five Countries. In Contemporary Approaches in the Field of Economy, Finance and Management (pp.43-58). Erfmeconomıc Research and Financial Markets Congress with Internatıonal Partıcıpatıon. 15-17 October.
  • Kavese, K. and Phiri, A. (2020). A Provincial Perspective Of Nonlinear Okun's Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa. Studia Universitatis Economics Series “Vasile Goldis” Western University of Arad. 30(3), 59 –76.
  • Küçükkaya, H., Özçağ, M. and Bozdağlıoğlu, Y. (2019). Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Relationship Between Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Transition Economies. Special Issue on Applied Economics and Finance. 14 (Special Issue), 62-68. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jyasar/issue/44178/521494
  • Koçbulut, Ö. and Altıntaş, H. (2016). Twin Deficits and The Feldstein-Horiokahypothesis: The Analysis of Panel Cointegration With Structural Break Under the Cross-Section Dependence on OECD Countries. Erciyes University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. (48),145-174.https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/erciyesiibd/issue/28008/ 297415 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Maddala, G. S. and Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 61 (Special Issue), 631-652. Doi: 10.1111/1468-0084.0610S1631
  • Mıhçı, S. and Atılgan, E. (2010). Unemployment and Growth: Okun Coefficients for Turkish Economy. Economics, Business and Finance. 25 (296), 33-54. Doi: 10.3848/iif.2010.296.2803
  • Narayan, P.K. and Smyth, R. (2006). What Determines Migration Flows from Lowincome to High-Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation of Fiji-US Migration 1972–2001. Contemporary Economic Policy. 24 (2), 332– 342. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/cep/byj019
  • Naskah, I. (2019). Hukum OKUN: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Tingkat Pengangguran Di Indonesia. Journal Ekonomi Pembangunan. 8(1), 37-44. Doi: https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v8i1.32
  • Nkoro, E. and Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application And İnterpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods. 5(4), 63-91.
  • Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance. In American Statistical Association. Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section , 98-103.
  • Oruç, E. (2019). Testing Validity of Okun’s Law for Five Fragile Economies. A New Perspective in Social Sciences. Frontpage Publications. (e-Book)
  • Owyang, M. and Sekhposyan, T. (2012). Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle was the Great Recession all that Different. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. 94(5), 399-418. Doi: 10.20955/r.94.399-418
  • Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (2001). Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics., 16 (Special Issue), 289-326. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Test for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper Series. Discussion Paper No. 1240, 1-39. Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.572504
  • Purnomo, D., Kusumastuti, N., Anas, M., Aisyah, S. and Shaari, M.S. (2020). Evaluating the Economy Growth by Supply Chain Strategies and Testing the Validity of Okun’s Laws in Indonesia. International Journal of Supply Chain Management. 9(1), 826-831
  • Sezen, S. and Öztürk, S. (2018). Analysis of The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment: The Case of Turkey. Mustafa Kemal University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 15(41), 1-14. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/mkusbed/issue/36823/388299 (Erişim: 25.02.2022)
  • Schnabel, G. (2002). Output Trends and Okun’s Law. BIS Working Papers. No.111, 1-34. Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.846324
  • Sögner, L. and Stiassny, A. (2002). An Analysis on The Structural Stability of Okun's Law-A Cross-Country Study. Applied Economics. 34 (14), 1775-1787. Doi: 10.1080/00036840210124180
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2003). Advanced Panel Data Analysis. Istanbul: Beta Publishing and Distribution Inc.
  • Uslu, H. (2020). Jobless Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey in the Framework of Okun Law. Optimum Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. 7 (1), 101-126. Doi: 10.17541/optimum.578251
  • Vogelvang, B. (2005). Econometrics Theory and Applications with EViews. Prentice Hall.
  • Yılmaz, Ö.G. (2005). The Causal Relationship Between Growth and Unemployment Rates in The Turkish Economy. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal. (2), 63-76. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuekois/issue/8983/112053
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö., Daştan, M. and Karabulut, K. (2018). Econometrıc Analysıs of The Relatıonshıp Between Economıc Growth And Unemployment in The Context of The Okun Law: Evıdence From Turkey Economıcs (2000: Q1-2017: Q4). International Journal of Economics Politics Humanities and Social Sciences. 1 (1), 8-2 Doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3311098
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Macroeconomic Theory
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Berrak Tekgün 0000-0002-9130-0070

İlhan Eroğlu 0000-0003-4711-1165

Early Pub Date September 13, 2023
Publication Date October 4, 2023
Submission Date August 5, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Tekgün, B., & Eroğlu, İ. (2023). How Okun’s Law Works in Fragile Five Countries: Panel Data Analysis. Uluslararası Ekonomi Ve Yenilik Dergisi, 9(2), 273-288. https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1338162

International Journal of Economics and Innovation

Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Economics, 61080, Trabzon/Türkiye
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