Abstract
The
current account is the primary account of the balance of payments. Because that
measures all transactions that involve economic values of goods, services,
primary income, and secondary income. We can understand performance of the economy
and its main problems with current account so that it is taken into
consideration by the policymakers in the decision process. Current account
deficit became persistent structural problem in Turkey. In this study, we
investigate, how Turkey's current account is affected when there is an
unexpected increase in the prices of imported goods and exported goods. For
this purpose, we used a DSGE model. Based on micro-baselines in general, DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General
Equilibrium) models describe the change of economic variables over time. The
basic assumption of DSGE models is that markets are cleared with price and
quantity adjustments. DSGE models are widely used to investigate the
effectiveness of economic policies. In this study, ARGEMmin DSGE model
developed by Escude (2012) for a Small Open Economy (SOE) is adapted to Turkey
in order to study the dynamics of Current Account in Turkey. The model is
calibrated and implemented in Dynare. The impacts of export and import
inflation shocks on the current account dynamics are shown by obtaining impulse
response functions.
References
- Cebi, C. (2012) The interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey: An estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. Economic Modelling, 29 (4), 1258-1267.
- Deniz, P., Aslanoğlu, E. (2014) Consumer Confidence in a DSGE Model for Turkey. Allied Social Science Associations, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, USA.
- Escude, J. E. (2012) A DSGE model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes. Dynare Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 15.
- Deniz, P., Aslanoğlu, E. (2014) Consumer Confidence in a DSGE Model for Turkey. Allied Social Science Associations, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, USA.
- Escude, J. E. (2012) A DSGE model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes. Dynare Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 15.
- Huseynov, S. (2010) An Estimated DSGE Model For Turkey With a Monetary Regime Change. Master Thesis, Central European University, Budapest-Hungary.
- Lubic, T.A., Schorfheide, F. (2007) Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1069-1087.
- Ozcelebi, O., Yildirim N. and Kansu A. (2014) Possible Effects of domestic and foreign factors on monetary policy implementation in Turkey: a DSGEVAR Approach. Economic Research, 27, (1), 590606.
- Rothenberg, A. D., Warnock, F. E. (2006) Sudden Flight and Sudden Stops. Institute for International Integration Studies, University of Dublin. Working Paper No. 187.
- Villaverde, J. F. (2009) The Econometrics of DSGE Models. NBER Working Paper, No. 14677.
Abstract
Cari İşlemler Hesabı, bir ülkenin ihraç ve
ithal ettiği mallar ve hizmetlerin kaydedildiği hesap olması nedeniyle Ödemeler
Bilançosunun en önemli ana hesabıdır. Ekonominin performansını ve temel
sorunlarını anlamak açısından öneminden ötürü cari işlemler hesabı, politika
yapıcılar tarafından karar sürecinde dikkate alınır. Türkiye’de kriz dönemleri
dışında, cari işlemler hesabının uzun yıllardır sürekli olarak açık vermesi, çözüm
bulunmaya çalışılan yapısal bir sorundur. Bu çalışmada çalışmada ithal malların ve ihraç edilen
malların fiyatlarında beklenmeyen bir
artış yaşandığında Türkiye’nin Cari İşlemler hesabının nasıl etkilendiği
araştırılacaktır. Bu amaçla bu çalışmada ekonomik değişkenlerin zamana göre
değişimini tanımlayan, genel olarak mikro temellere dayanan DSGE (Dinamik Stokastik
Genel Denge) modeli kullanılmıştır. DSGE modellerinin temel varsayımları
piyasaların fiyat ve miktar ayarlamalarıyla temizlendiğidir. Türkiye
için cari işlemler hesabı dinamiklerini incelemek amacıyla bu çalışmada
kullandığımız DSGE modeli, Escude (2012) tarafından geliştirilen ARGEMmin
modelinin Türkiye’ye uyarlanmış halidir. Model Dynare paket programı
kullanılarak kalibre edildi ve uygulandı. İhracat ve ithalat enflasyonu
şoklarının cari işlemler hesabı üzerindeki etkisi etki tepki fonksiyonlarıyla
gösterilmiştir.
References
- Cebi, C. (2012) The interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey: An estimated New Keynesian DSGE model. Economic Modelling, 29 (4), 1258-1267.
- Deniz, P., Aslanoğlu, E. (2014) Consumer Confidence in a DSGE Model for Turkey. Allied Social Science Associations, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, USA.
- Escude, J. E. (2012) A DSGE model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes. Dynare Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 15.
- Deniz, P., Aslanoğlu, E. (2014) Consumer Confidence in a DSGE Model for Turkey. Allied Social Science Associations, January 3-5, 2014, Philadelphia, USA.
- Escude, J. E. (2012) A DSGE model for a SOE with Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes. Dynare Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 15.
- Huseynov, S. (2010) An Estimated DSGE Model For Turkey With a Monetary Regime Change. Master Thesis, Central European University, Budapest-Hungary.
- Lubic, T.A., Schorfheide, F. (2007) Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(4), 1069-1087.
- Ozcelebi, O., Yildirim N. and Kansu A. (2014) Possible Effects of domestic and foreign factors on monetary policy implementation in Turkey: a DSGEVAR Approach. Economic Research, 27, (1), 590606.
- Rothenberg, A. D., Warnock, F. E. (2006) Sudden Flight and Sudden Stops. Institute for International Integration Studies, University of Dublin. Working Paper No. 187.
- Villaverde, J. F. (2009) The Econometrics of DSGE Models. NBER Working Paper, No. 14677.
Details
| Journal Section | Articles |
|---|---|
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | January 16, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018 18. EYI Special Issue |
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