Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Hanehalkı Toplam Enerji Harcamaları Tahmini

Esma Kesriklioglu; Erkan Oktay

EN TR

Prediction of Household Total Energy Expenditures Using Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

Depending on the development rate and economic developments of the countries, the range of consumption habits is expanding uncontrollably. Along with rising living standards, household energy consumption inevitably also causes energy demand to increase significantly in recent years. There is a growing concern about the energy use of households, which are a major energy user worldwide. Studies investigating the suitability of machine learning methods for estimating household total energy expenditure are insufficient. To fill this gap, this study presents a comparison of different machine learning methods for regression estimation of household total energy expenditure. It is aimed to find the machine learning method that provides the best prediction performance. The Household Budget Survey 2019 data set obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) was used. Household consumption data of 11,521 households were analyzed. Under the guidance of the literature review and expert opinion, variables directly or indirectly related to household energy expenditures were created. The prepared variables were passed through data preprocessing, feature selection, modeling and estimation stages with the open source RapidMiner software program. A regression-based machine learning approach was used to estimate household total energy expenditure. In the modeling phase, DL, GBT, RF, KNN, DT machine learning methods were used. As a result, DL method showed the best performance with the highest R2 (0.99) and lowest RMSE (5.5). The results of the analysis show that more accurate results are obtained with the DLmethod in the estimation of household total energy expenditures.

Keywords

Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Hanehalkı Toplam Enerji Harcamaları Tahmini

Öz

Ülkelerin kalkınma hızı ve ekonomik gelişmelere bağlı olarak tüketim alışkanlıklarının yelpazesi kontrolsüz bir şekilde genişlemektedir. Yükselen yaşam standartları ile birlikte, kaçınılmaz olarak hanehalkı enerji tüketimi de enerji talebinin son yıllarda önemli ölçüde artmasına neden olmaktadır. Dünya çapında önemli bir enerji kullanıcısı olan hanehalklarının enerji kullanımı hakkında artan bir endişe bulunmaktadır. Hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarını tahmin etmek için makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin uygunluğunu araştıran çalışmalar yetersizdir. Bu boşluğu gidermek için bu çalışmada, hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarının regresyon tahmini için farklı makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin karşılaştırılması sunulmuştur. En iyi tahmin performansını sağlayan makine öğrenmesi yönteminin bulunması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’ten elde edilen, Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi 2019 veri seti kullanılmıştır. 11.521 hanenin hanehalkı tüketim verileri incelenmiştir. Yapılan literatür taraması ve uzman görüşü rehberliğinde hanehalkı enerji harcamaları ile doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak ilgili değişkenler oluşturulmuştur. Hazırlanan değişkenler açık kaynak erişimli RapidMiner yazılım programı ile veri ön işleme, öznitellik seçimi, modelleme, tahmin ve performans değerlendirme aşamalarından geçirilmiştir. Hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarını tahmin etmek için regresyona bağlı farklı makine öğrenimi yaklaşımları kullanılmıştır. Modelleme aşamasında, DL, GBT, RF, KNN, DT makine öğrenmesi modelleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, en yüksek R2 (0,99) ve en düşük RMSE (5,5) ile en iyi performansı, DL modeli göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçları, hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamaları tahmininde derin öğrenme yöntemi ile daha doğru sonuçlar elde edildiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Esma Kesriklioglu ^*
0000-0001-6916-8643
Türkiye

Erkan Oktay
0000-0002-1739-3184
Türkiye

Publication Date

January 11, 2023

Submission Date

August 17, 2022

Acceptance Date

August 31, 2022

Published in Issue

Year 2022 Volume: 5 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA69NF34ES

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Kesriklioglu, E., & Oktay, E. (2023). Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Hanehalkı Toplam Enerji Harcamaları Tahmini. Turkish Research Journal of Academic Social Science, 5(2), 110-118. https://izlik.org/JA69NF34ES