Research Article
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The Impact of Political Elections on Financial Markets as Political Risk Factor: A Case Study of the 2023 Turkey Presidential Elections

Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 139 - 146, 03.01.2024

Esra Karpuz , Yasemin Deniz Koç , Onur Demir

https://doi.org/10.59372/turajas.1348877
Cited By: 1

Abstract

The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of the 2023 Presidential elections on the BIST-30 index using the event study methodology. When evaluating the findings regarding the impact of the 2023 Presidential elections held in Turkey on the stock returns of companies traded in the BIST-30 index, in the 1st round election is a negative abnormal return while the 2nd round election has a positive abnormal return. According to the research findings, while investors' expectations during the election process were towards the continuation of market stability, the elections proceeding to the 2nd round led to a negative reaction contrary to those expectations. In the second round, the election outcome, which aligned with market expectations, is met with a positive abnormal return in the market. The absence of a study conducted on the 2023 political elections is the originality of the research and its contribution to the literature.

Keywords

Presidential Elections Political Certainty and Risk Abnormal Returns Event Study

References

  • Ali, N. P., & Saha, A. (2021). Market Efficiency of Indian Capital Market: An Event Study Around the Announcement of Results of Lok Sabha Election 2019. International Journal of Financial Research, 12(1), 60-70.
  • Bakırtaş, İ., (1998), “Politik-Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar Kuramı Kapsamında Türkiye’deki Politik Yapının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2,47-59.
  • Bakırtaş, İ. & Koyuncu, C. (2008) “Türkiye’de Finansal Göstergeler Üzerinde Politik Denge Oluşumlarının Etkileri”, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2, 339-352.
  • Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk K. ve Wisniewski T. P. (2008). “Stock Market Volatility around National Elections.” Journal of Banking and Finance. 32, 1941–1953
  • Bouoiyour, J., & Selmi, R. (2016). The price of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential election and the US stock markets. arXiv preprint arXiv:1612.06200.
  • Brander, J. A. (1991), ‘Election polls, free trade, and the stock market: evidence from the 1988Canadian general election’,Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 24, pp. 827–43
  • Brown, S.J., & Warner, J.B. (1985), Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
  • Canbaş S. & Doğukanlı H. (2001) Finansal Pazarlar Finansal Kurumlar ve Sermaye Pazarı Analizleri, Beta Yayın, İstanbul
  • Cartner, M. & Wellershoff, K. W. (1995), “Is There An Electıon Cycle in Amerıcan Stock Returns?”, International Review of Economics and Finance 4(4), 387-407.
  • Chan, Y. C., Chui, A. C.W. & Kwok, C.C.Y.,(2001), “The Impact of Salient Political and Economic News on The Trading Activity”, Pacific- Basin Finance Journal 9, p.195.
  • Chen, C., Tang, W.W., & Haung, B.Y. (2009). The Positive and Negative Impacts of the Sars Outbreak : A Case of the Taiwan Industries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 281–293.
  • Çakır, H. M. & Gülcan, Z. (2012). “Şirket Birleşme ve Devralma Kararlarının Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi”, Mali Çözüm Dergisi. 79-108.
  • Dutra Duffy, L. R. (2019). Stock Market reaction to Election Results: an Event Study Analysis.
  • Goodel, J. W. & Vahamaa, S. (2013), “US Presidential Elections And Implied Volatility: The Role Of Political Uncertainty”, Journal of Banking&Finance 37: 1108-1117.
  • Gour, R. (2020). “Impact of General Election on Indian Stock Market An Event Study on 2019 Lok Sabha Election”. International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews. 7 (1), 173-182.
  • He, Y., Lin, H., Wu, C. & Dufrene, U. B., (2009), “The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versusnon-sensitive S&P 500 stocks”, Journal of Financial Markets.12: 54-84.
  • Irungu, A. K. (2012). Informational content of general election results announcenment at the nairobi securities exchange. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Nairobi.
  • John, A., & Lawton, T. C. (2018). International political risk management: Perspectives, approaches and emerging agendas. International Journal of Management Reviews, 20(4),847-879.
  • Karpuz, E. & Deniz Koç, Y. (2022). Covıd-19 Pandemisinin Finansal Piyasalar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul Örneği. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7 (14) , 77-89.
  • Kayali, M. M. & Çelik, S. (2009). The Impact Of International Cross Listings On Risk And Return: Evidence From Turkey. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 8(7), 656–664.
  • Khan, S., Razzi Abbas Jafri, R., Baig, N., Shaique, M., & Usman, M. (2017). Stock index manipulation around election announcements: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange. International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 5(2), 87-91.
  • Khanifah, K., Triyani, A., & Setyahuni, S. W. (2021). Do Regional Election and Presidential Election Affect Stock Exchange? An Event Study in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Bisnis: Jurnal Program Studi Akuntansi, 7(1), 71-80.
  • Kim, H. Y. & Mei, J. P.,(2001), “What Makes The Stock Market Jump? An Analysis Of Political Risk On Hong Kong Stock Returns”, Journal of International Money and Finance: 1003-1015.
  • Kırkağaç, M. & Karpuz, E. (2023). 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin BİST Banka ve Sigorta Piyasasına Etkisi Üzerine Bir Olay Çalışması Analizi. Kırıkkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi,13(2),387-401.
  • Kolyvakis, Z. (2017). The Ef ect of Election Results on British Stock Markets: an Event Study on Healthcare Stock Returns. Obtenido de Erasmus University of Rotterdam Thesis Repository.
  • Ma, Y., Sun, H. L. & Tang, A. P. (2003); “The Stock Return Effect Of Political Risk Event On Foreign Joint ventures: Evidence From The Tiananmen Square Incident”, Global Finance Journal, 14: 49-63.
  • MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event Studies in Economics and Finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13–39.
  • Mandacı, P. E. (2003). İMKB’de genel seçimler öncesi ve sonrasında anormal fiyat hareketleri. İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
  • Menge, R.N, Mwangi, M. & Kimani, J.G. (2014) Effect of elections on stock market returns at the Nairobi securities exchange. Prime Journal of Social Science 3(6), 763-768.
  • Miya, G. H. (2007). Stock market behaviour around national elections in Kenya. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Nairobi.
  • Nezerwe, Y. (2013). Presidential elections and stock returns in Egypt. Review of Business & Finance Studies, 4(2), 63-68.
  • Obradović, S., & Tomić, N. (2017). The effect of presidential election in the USA on stock return flow–a study of a political event. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 30(1), 112-124. Oral İ. & Yılmaz C. (2017). Finansal Ve Politik Risk Endeksinin Bist Sinai Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi, 33, 192-202
  • Osuala, A.E. Onoh, U.A. & Nwansi, G.U. (2018), “Presidential election results and stock market performance evidence from Nigeria”, Applied Economics and Finance, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 117-124
  • Özsağır, A. (2013), “Askeri Darbe ve Müdahalelerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(4), Gaziantep, ss.759-771.
  • Pantzalis, C., Stangeland, D. A. & Turtle, H. J. (2000), “Political Elections And There Solution Of Uncertainty: The International Evidence”, Journal of Banking&Finance, 24, ss.1575-1602.
  • Parlaktuna, İ. & Bahçe, A.B. (2006), “Politik Konjonktür Dalgalanmalarının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması (1980–2006)”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2:1-15.
  • Perotti, E.C. & Oijen, P. V. (2001), “Privatization, Political Risk And Stock Market Development İn Emerging Economies”, Journal of International Money and Finance 20, pp.43-66.
  • Redzwan, N., Musa, N., Abdul Latip, A., Abdul Latif, Y., & Ab Rahman, I. (2019). Stock Market Analysis During Election Period in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Economy, 1(2), 93-102.
  • Sakarya, Ş., Çalış, N. & Kayacan, M. A. (2018). Temettü Ödeme Duyurularının Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Ölçülmesi: Borsa İstanbul’da Bir Uygulama. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 7 (2) , 92-106.
  • Say, S. & Doğan, M. (2023). Depremlerin Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2023 Yılı Kahramanmaraş Depremi Örneği . Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi , 12 (1) , 90-97.
  • Singh, B., Dhall, R., Narang, S., & Rawat, S. (2020). The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries. Global Business Review, 0(0).
  • Tay, L. Y., Devinaga, R., & Lai, M. M. (2016). Behaviour of Stock Returns in Relation to General Elections: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market. Information, 19(7 (B)), 2955-2959.
  • Tunçel, A. K. (2013), “Aşırı Tepki Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Borsa İstanbul Örneği”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2:113-121.
  • Turanlı, M., Özden, Ü. H., Demirhan, D. (2002), “Seçim Tartışmalarının Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkisi”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Dergisi, 2 :1-13.

Politik Risk Unsuru Olarak Siyasi Seçimlerin Finansal Piyasalara Etkisi: 2023 Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri Olay Çalışması

Year 2023, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 139 - 146, 03.01.2024

Esra Karpuz , Yasemin Deniz Koç , Onur Demir

https://doi.org/10.59372/turajas.1348877
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, 2023 Cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinin BİST30 endeksine olan etkisini olay çalışması metodolojisi ile analiz etmektir. Türkiye’de gerçekleştirilen 2023 cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinin BİST30 endeksinde işlem gören şirketlerin pay senedi getirilerine olan etkilerine dair bulgular değerlendirildiğinde; 1. Tur seçiminde seçimlerin etkisi negatif anormal bir getiri şeklindeyken 2. Tur seçiminde pozitif anormal getiri gerçekleşmiştir. Araştırmanın elde ettiği bulgulardan yola çıkarak yatırımcıların seçim sürecindeki beklentilerinin piyasa istikrarının devam etmesi yönündeyken seçimlerin 2. Tura kalması beklenti dışına çıkarak negatif bir tepkiye yol açmıştır. İkinci turda ise piyasa beklentisiyle aynı yönde gerçekleşen sonuç pozitif anormal getiri ile piyasada cevap bulmuştur. 2023 siyasi seçimlerine ilişkin yapılmış bir çalışma olmaması araştırmanın özgünlüğü ve literatüre katkısıdır.

Keywords

Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimleri Politik İstikrar ve Risk Anormal Getiri Olay Çalışması

References

  • Ali, N. P., & Saha, A. (2021). Market Efficiency of Indian Capital Market: An Event Study Around the Announcement of Results of Lok Sabha Election 2019. International Journal of Financial Research, 12(1), 60-70.
  • Bakırtaş, İ., (1998), “Politik-Ekonomik Dalgalanmalar Kuramı Kapsamında Türkiye’deki Politik Yapının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2,47-59.
  • Bakırtaş, İ. & Koyuncu, C. (2008) “Türkiye’de Finansal Göstergeler Üzerinde Politik Denge Oluşumlarının Etkileri”, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2, 339-352.
  • Bialkowski, J., Gottschalk K. ve Wisniewski T. P. (2008). “Stock Market Volatility around National Elections.” Journal of Banking and Finance. 32, 1941–1953
  • Bouoiyour, J., & Selmi, R. (2016). The price of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential election and the US stock markets. arXiv preprint arXiv:1612.06200.
  • Brander, J. A. (1991), ‘Election polls, free trade, and the stock market: evidence from the 1988Canadian general election’,Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 24, pp. 827–43
  • Brown, S.J., & Warner, J.B. (1985), Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
  • Canbaş S. & Doğukanlı H. (2001) Finansal Pazarlar Finansal Kurumlar ve Sermaye Pazarı Analizleri, Beta Yayın, İstanbul
  • Cartner, M. & Wellershoff, K. W. (1995), “Is There An Electıon Cycle in Amerıcan Stock Returns?”, International Review of Economics and Finance 4(4), 387-407.
  • Chan, Y. C., Chui, A. C.W. & Kwok, C.C.Y.,(2001), “The Impact of Salient Political and Economic News on The Trading Activity”, Pacific- Basin Finance Journal 9, p.195.
  • Chen, C., Tang, W.W., & Haung, B.Y. (2009). The Positive and Negative Impacts of the Sars Outbreak : A Case of the Taiwan Industries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 281–293.
  • Çakır, H. M. & Gülcan, Z. (2012). “Şirket Birleşme ve Devralma Kararlarının Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi”, Mali Çözüm Dergisi. 79-108.
  • Dutra Duffy, L. R. (2019). Stock Market reaction to Election Results: an Event Study Analysis.
  • Goodel, J. W. & Vahamaa, S. (2013), “US Presidential Elections And Implied Volatility: The Role Of Political Uncertainty”, Journal of Banking&Finance 37: 1108-1117.
  • Gour, R. (2020). “Impact of General Election on Indian Stock Market An Event Study on 2019 Lok Sabha Election”. International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews. 7 (1), 173-182.
  • He, Y., Lin, H., Wu, C. & Dufrene, U. B., (2009), “The 2000 presidential election and the information cost of sensitive versusnon-sensitive S&P 500 stocks”, Journal of Financial Markets.12: 54-84.
  • Irungu, A. K. (2012). Informational content of general election results announcenment at the nairobi securities exchange. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Nairobi.
  • John, A., & Lawton, T. C. (2018). International political risk management: Perspectives, approaches and emerging agendas. International Journal of Management Reviews, 20(4),847-879.
  • Karpuz, E. & Deniz Koç, Y. (2022). Covıd-19 Pandemisinin Finansal Piyasalar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul Örneği. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7 (14) , 77-89.
  • Kayali, M. M. & Çelik, S. (2009). The Impact Of International Cross Listings On Risk And Return: Evidence From Turkey. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 8(7), 656–664.
  • Khan, S., Razzi Abbas Jafri, R., Baig, N., Shaique, M., & Usman, M. (2017). Stock index manipulation around election announcements: evidence from Pakistan stock exchange. International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies, 5(2), 87-91.
  • Khanifah, K., Triyani, A., & Setyahuni, S. W. (2021). Do Regional Election and Presidential Election Affect Stock Exchange? An Event Study in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Bisnis: Jurnal Program Studi Akuntansi, 7(1), 71-80.
  • Kim, H. Y. & Mei, J. P.,(2001), “What Makes The Stock Market Jump? An Analysis Of Political Risk On Hong Kong Stock Returns”, Journal of International Money and Finance: 1003-1015.
  • Kırkağaç, M. & Karpuz, E. (2023). 2023 Kahramanmaraş Depremlerinin BİST Banka ve Sigorta Piyasasına Etkisi Üzerine Bir Olay Çalışması Analizi. Kırıkkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi,13(2),387-401.
  • Kolyvakis, Z. (2017). The Ef ect of Election Results on British Stock Markets: an Event Study on Healthcare Stock Returns. Obtenido de Erasmus University of Rotterdam Thesis Repository.
  • Ma, Y., Sun, H. L. & Tang, A. P. (2003); “The Stock Return Effect Of Political Risk Event On Foreign Joint ventures: Evidence From The Tiananmen Square Incident”, Global Finance Journal, 14: 49-63.
  • MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event Studies in Economics and Finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13–39.
  • Mandacı, P. E. (2003). İMKB’de genel seçimler öncesi ve sonrasında anormal fiyat hareketleri. İMKB Dergisi, 7(27), 1-16.
  • Menge, R.N, Mwangi, M. & Kimani, J.G. (2014) Effect of elections on stock market returns at the Nairobi securities exchange. Prime Journal of Social Science 3(6), 763-768.
  • Miya, G. H. (2007). Stock market behaviour around national elections in Kenya. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation, University of Nairobi.
  • Nezerwe, Y. (2013). Presidential elections and stock returns in Egypt. Review of Business & Finance Studies, 4(2), 63-68.
  • Obradović, S., & Tomić, N. (2017). The effect of presidential election in the USA on stock return flow–a study of a political event. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 30(1), 112-124. Oral İ. & Yılmaz C. (2017). Finansal Ve Politik Risk Endeksinin Bist Sinai Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi, 33, 192-202
  • Osuala, A.E. Onoh, U.A. & Nwansi, G.U. (2018), “Presidential election results and stock market performance evidence from Nigeria”, Applied Economics and Finance, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 117-124
  • Özsağır, A. (2013), “Askeri Darbe ve Müdahalelerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(4), Gaziantep, ss.759-771.
  • Pantzalis, C., Stangeland, D. A. & Turtle, H. J. (2000), “Political Elections And There Solution Of Uncertainty: The International Evidence”, Journal of Banking&Finance, 24, ss.1575-1602.
  • Parlaktuna, İ. & Bahçe, A.B. (2006), “Politik Konjonktür Dalgalanmalarının Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi ve Türkiye Uygulaması (1980–2006)”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2:1-15.
  • Perotti, E.C. & Oijen, P. V. (2001), “Privatization, Political Risk And Stock Market Development İn Emerging Economies”, Journal of International Money and Finance 20, pp.43-66.
  • Redzwan, N., Musa, N., Abdul Latip, A., Abdul Latif, Y., & Ab Rahman, I. (2019). Stock Market Analysis During Election Period in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Economy, 1(2), 93-102.
  • Sakarya, Ş., Çalış, N. & Kayacan, M. A. (2018). Temettü Ödeme Duyurularının Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Ölçülmesi: Borsa İstanbul’da Bir Uygulama. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 7 (2) , 92-106.
  • Say, S. & Doğan, M. (2023). Depremlerin Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi: 2023 Yılı Kahramanmaraş Depremi Örneği . Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi , 12 (1) , 90-97.
  • Singh, B., Dhall, R., Narang, S., & Rawat, S. (2020). The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries. Global Business Review, 0(0).
  • Tay, L. Y., Devinaga, R., & Lai, M. M. (2016). Behaviour of Stock Returns in Relation to General Elections: Evidence from Malaysian Stock Market. Information, 19(7 (B)), 2955-2959.
  • Tunçel, A. K. (2013), “Aşırı Tepki Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Borsa İstanbul Örneği”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2:113-121.
  • Turanlı, M., Özden, Ü. H., Demirhan, D. (2002), “Seçim Tartışmalarının Hisse Senedi Piyasasına Etkisi”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Dergisi, 2 :1-13.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance and Investment (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Esra Karpuz 0000-0003-2765-4082

Yasemin Deniz Koç 0000-0001-8280-7657

Onur Demir 0009-0000-0837-5577

Early Pub Date December 31, 2023
Publication Date January 3, 2024
Submission Date August 23, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023Volume: 6 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Karpuz, E., Koç, Y. D., & Demir, O. (2024). The Impact of Political Elections on Financial Markets as Political Risk Factor: A Case Study of the 2023 Turkey Presidential Elections. Turkish Research Journal of Academic Social Science, 6(2), 139-146. https://doi.org/10.59372/turajas.1348877

Cited By

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Perspektifinden Politik Riskin Pay Senedi Piyasalarına Yansımalarına Yönelik Ekonometrik Kanıtlar
TESAM Akademi Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1422381
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